Emmanuel Macron, the French President will head to China next week for a rare visit to the rising superpower, in an uneasy balancing act between his international statesman ambitions and his effort to contain awkward pension protests at home.
Macron, whose determination to force argued pension legislation through parliament earlier this month sparked conflicts and violence in French cities, is attempting to maintain his busy diplomatic schedule on track.
But the messy scenes of burning piles of trash in Paris, which were broadcast around the World, have already pushed Macron to cancel a state visit by Britain’s King Charles, an embarrassment which did not go neglected in diplomatic circles.
It’s a very prestigious thing to host the first visit abroad of the King of England, it doesn’t happen every day. If you can’t pull it off, it’s a problem.”
the ambassador of a European country told Reuters.
It’s clear it is weakening him. It’s hard to measure the impact, but there is one, another EU diplomat said.
The protests, which will see unions stage an 11th nationwide strike during Macron’s time in China, come as the French president is attempting to regain the initiative on the war in Ukraine and play a leadership role in Europe. That hasn’t escaped Chinese observers.
The protests bring a large amount of risk and France needs a diplomatic highlight, especially since it wants to play the role of Europe’s leader.”
Wang Yiwei-director of the Centre for European Studies at Renmin University in China.
Macron will also require to maintain in mind China’s tactic of playing divide and rule, said a non-Western diplomat who suggested China may attempt to use the trip to place a wedge in the Western camp and lure France away from the United States.
For his part, Macron wants to send a warning to his counterpart Chinese Xi Jinping, who was hosted at the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month, that Europe will not accept China supplying arms to Russia, now a year into its invasion of Ukraine.
Our message will be clear: There may be a temptation to get closer to Russia, but do not cross that line.”
a senior French diplomat said.
Analysts say Putin’s determination to station nuclear weapons in Belarus can provide an opportunity for France to force China to distance itself from Russia on this point, China has long denounced nuclear expansion.
France is a nuclear power, it’s got this card to play.”
Antoine Bondaz of the France-based FRS think-tank.
However, a Brussels-based diplomat said many in Europe were doubtful he could be successful in his earlier stated purpose of encouraging China to put pressure on Russia to end the war.
Many in Brussels roll their eyes when you bring that up.”
Antoine said.
French diplomats are playing down the influence the protests at home could have on Macron’s credibility abroad. They point out Xi encountered his protests at the end of last year, in an irregular show of civil disobedience over COVID-19 restrictions.
The Chinese will play a fine balancing act. They need a good relationship with Europe so will not want to play on Macron’s internal problems.”
another French diplomat said.
Amid worsening relations between the United States and China, which reached a fever pitch last month after the US shot down a Chinese balloon flying over its territory, Europe is trying to carve its path.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who will be accompanying Macron in China, said the bloc was peeking to “de-risk” diplomatically and economically at a time China was exercising greater control over companies, without “decoupling”.
Analysts say China’s worsening relationship with the US gives Europe a bit more force, with the EU’s extended single market becoming more crucial for China. That can provide an opportunity for Macron, who has forced Europe to maintain its “strategic autonomy,” but is also expecting France and the rest of the EU can benefit from a reopening Chinese economy after years of the pandemic.
Macron can deliver a message that Europe wants to engage with China, but that it’s going to be difficult if China continues down the path that it’s currently on with Russia.”
Noah Barkin, an analyst with Rhodium Group said.
