As the omicron variant of Covid-19 continues to spread globally, China is gearing up for a potential new wave of infections. Projections indicate that the number of cases could skyrocket to as high as 65 million per week by the end of June, presenting a dire situation for a country that only a few months ago implemented some of the strictest Covid control measures worldwide. However, both the Chinese government and the public are displaying a relatively muted response in the face of this alarming forecast.
Approximately six months ago, China dismantled the extensive infrastructure it had put in place to combat the virus, including strict lockdowns, widespread testing, mandatory quarantines, and stringent mask requirements. However, the current surge in cases driven by the omicron variant has prompted a subdued reaction from both authorities and the general public.
Respiratory disease specialist Zhong Nanshan revealed data at a medical conference in Guangzhou, indicating that the ongoing wave of infections, which started in late April, was anticipated. His modeling predicted that China could experience up to 40 million infections per week, peaking at 65 million by the end of June. To put this into perspective, at its peak in January, the United States reported over 5 million cases per week. However, China has recently stopped providing weekly case updates, making it challenging to determine the true extent of the current outbreak.
While the United States engages in discussions with allies and partners regarding China’s second wave of Covid-19, the State Department has not confirmed whether travel restrictions are being considered. The focus remains on closely monitoring the situation in coordination with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) before updating travel guidelines. The U.S. government emphasizes the importance of collaboration with China on global health matters and maintaining open lines of communication.
During the previous omicron wave in December and January, a different variant of the virus wreaked havoc in China, infecting millions and overwhelming hospitals and crematoriums. However, immunity may have waned since then, increasing the risk of reinfection. Zhong mentioned that the government has given preliminary approval for two vaccines targeting the omicron subvariants, with further approvals potentially following soon.
China’s subdued response can be attributed to its efforts to revive the economy and reassure foreign businesses, including those from the United States. The reintroduction of stringent restrictions could have a detrimental impact on businesses, so stability and clarity are being sought to facilitate planning and economic stability.
The public’s perception of the current wave is also influenced by a change in government messaging. There is less media coverage instilling fear among the population, no alarming videos disseminated to alert people, and no strict measures such as lockdowns being enforced. Consequently, some individuals have reported perceiving milder symptoms during this wave. However, there are also concerns about whether the initial strict measures were necessary given the current situation.
The landscape has significantly shifted since the early days of the pandemic, and China is now facing new challenges with the omicron variant. The country is navigating a delicate balance between managing the spread of the virus and promoting economic stability, all while addressing public sentiment and ensuring clarity in communication. The subdued response to the alarming projections raises concerns about the effectiveness of the current approach and the potential impact it may have on controlling the outbreak.
