Dozens of classified American Defense Department documents – including maps, charts, and photographs – are circulating on the internet, providing a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine. Some of the documents are marked “top secret” and contain impenetrable military acronyms.
The leaked documents describe the casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each, and what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive. The leak is the largest of secret American information on the war in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion 14 months ago.
The documents have been verified as real by Pentagon officials, and while some have been crudely altered, that seems a minor detail in light of the volume of material. The BBC has seen more than 20 of the documents, which include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.
The documents also note that equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness. One map includes a “mud-frozen ground timeline”, assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.
Despite the volume of detail provided in the documents, much of it is already familiar. Casualty figures for Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are similar to previous estimates, although there is some disagreement on the actual numbers due to gaps in information and attempts by both sides to mislead.
The leaked documents raise questions about who leaked them and why. It has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but the documents first appeared on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March. Some suggest that it is part of a western plot to mislead Russian commanders, while others believe it is a possible disinformation campaign by Russia.
The leak is potentially damaging and has already raised concerns about Ukraine’s “operational security” at a critical moment. Ukraine’s spring offensive could be a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government, and the leaked documents could provide Russia with an advantage in the conflict.
While the Kremlin may already have a good idea of the scope of Ukraine’s preparations, Kyiv needs to keep its enemy guessing about how the campaign will unfold in order to maximize the chances of success. The leaked documents do not provide any indication of the direction or thrust of Ukraine’s counter-offensive, and officials are likely to be concerned about the impact of the leak on their strategic plans.
