According to Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW), the son of former Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, Pavel Prigozhin, has appeared as an alternative leader for the mercenary group to Andrey Troshev, former Wagner commander, who now serves in the ministry of defense and is supported by Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia.
Putin has publicly raised his support to Troshev, ISW reported. On September 29, Putin publicly admitted talks with Troshev about his involvement in the establishment of fresh volunteer units primarily tasked with war missions in Ukraine. This movement, however, initiated dissent within some aspects of the Wagner Group, leading to the emergence of an alternative leader.
The think tank quoted a prominent Telegram channel associated with the Wagner Group as reporting that Pavel Prigozhin, the 25-year-old son of Yevgeny Prigozhin, has taken “command” of the Wagner Group. It was further reported that Pavel Prigozhin is in negotiations with Rosgvardia (the National Guard of Russia) about the possible re-engagement of the Wagner Group in war operations in Ukraine.
Notably, the announcement suggested that Wagner combatants would not be needed to enter into contracts with the Russian Ministry of defense. Further, the Wagner Group plans to keep its name, symbols, ideology, leadership structure, management, and established operational principles.
ISW referenced sources near to the matter pointing that Pavel Prigozhin’s leadership may not be completely independent, as he is thought to be under the impact of Mikhail Vatanin, the head of the Wagner Security Service. This indicates a possible division within the Wagner Group, with some members rallying around the Prigozhin-linked leadership as an alternative to the Kremlin- and defense ministry-aligned leadership represented by Troshev.
Also, ISW emphasizes reports that Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov is regarding the potential of permitting aspects of the Wagner Group to join Rosgvardia as a distinct Wagner unit. However, it remains unclear how this branch of the Wagner Group may work alongside Rosgvardia.
In an assessment, the think tank said, “ISW previously assessed that disjointed Wagner Group elements were unlikely to pose a serious military threat to Ukraine without bringing the full suite of effectiveness Wagner had as a unitary organization under Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s and Dmitry Utkin’s consolidated leadership. This initial assessment will be invalidated if the Wagner Group reestablishes itself as a coherent and large formation under the Russian government with effective centralized leadership.”
