According to a UK intelligence update reported on Tuesday, the Kremlin will attempt to minimize “unpopular political moves” in the strengthening of the presidential election and the campaign of Russian President Vladimir Putin, so Russia will unlikely to begin a new wave of mobilization before March 2024.
In its war intelligence update, the British Ministry of Defense said, “Russia’s presidential election will take place on 17 March 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin will almost certainly run again, despite having not yet publicly announced his intention to do so. There is speculation that Putin’s election campaign will begin informally in November 2023.”
“While elections in Russia are subject to interference and control by the Kremlin, they remain a core tool of political legitimization,” it added.
It added, “It is almost certain that Putin’s election campaign will focus on the theme of Russia as a separate civilization in need of defense from external enemies – a narrative frequently used to justify the state’s actions and Putin’s consolidation of power.”
The British intelligence report emphasized, “In the build-up to the election, the Kremlin will almost certainly seek to minimize unpopular policy moves. It is therefore highly unlikely that any further mobilization wave will be implemented before the March 2024 presidential election.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said, earlier this month, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces had no current plans to announce a further mobilization as the military now had sufficient army force to take out the war in Ukraine, as quoted by state news agency TASS.
Shoigu stated that since the start of 2023, more than 335,000 people have volunteered for military service and signed relevant contracts.
