According to recent data released by the United Nations, India is set to become the world’s most populous country, overtaking China by mid-2023. India’s population is expected to reach 1.4286 billion, which is 2.9 million more than China’s population of 1.4257 billion.
For over 70 years, China and India have accounted for more than a third of the world’s population. However, China’s birth rate has significantly declined in recent years, and its population shrank last year for the first time since 1961. In contrast, India’s population has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in previous decades.
The UNFPA State of World Population report provides an estimate of India’s population, as there has been no census in the country since 2011. The 2021 census was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic and has been postponed to 2024. According to Patrick Gerland, the UN’s Chief of Population Estimates and Projection, any numbers about India’s actual population size are “naïve assumptions based on fragmental information.”
The UN’s estimate does not include the population of China’s two Special Administrative Regions – Hong Kong and Macau – or the island of Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province to be unified with the mainland one day.
While the news of India’s population surpassing China’s has raised concerns about overpopulation, experts say that growth is not as rapid as it used to be, and the global population is now at its slowest rate since 1950. Both China and India have seen declines in their fertility rates, and China’s population is expected to start declining next year, despite abandoning its one-child policy in 2016.
In India, fertility rates have fallen substantially in recent decades, from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2.2 births per woman today. A survey commissioned by the UNFPA found that a majority of Indians believed their population was too large and identified economic issues as the top concern when thinking about population growth.
Despite concerns about the rising population, demographers say that India’s overtaking of China should be seen as a symbol of progress, development, and aspirations, as long as individual rights and choices are being upheld.
