Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah will break weeks of silence on Friday since war broke out between Hamas and Israel, in a speech that could impact the region as the Gaza clash rages.
After the Hamas group launched a surprise October 7 attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip, Lebanon’s southern border has seen escalating tit-for-tat exchanges, especially between Israel and Hezbollah, a backer of the Palestinian group, stoking fears of a broader conflagration.
The cross-border invasions heated up Thursday, as Israel responded with a “broad assault” after Hezbollah pounded 19 Israeli positions simultaneously, according to the group.
Rockets also struck the Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona near the border in a barrage claimed by the Lebanese section of Hamas’s armed wing.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has cautioned that “the region is like a powder keg” and that “anything is possible” if Israel does not stop bombarding Gaza.
US President Joe Biden has sent two aircraft carrier groups to the eastern Mediterranean and cautioned Hezbollah and others to stay out of the clash.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “We’ve got significant national security interests at play here. I don’t believe we’ve seen any indication yet specifically that Hezbollah is ready to go in full force. So we’ll see what he has to say.”
Nasrallah’s highly anticipated speech will be broadcast as part of an event in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, at 3:00 pm (1300 GMT) on Friday, in memory of fighters killed in Israeli bombardments.
According to an AFP tally, on the Lebanese side, more than 70 people have been killed — at least 50 of them Hezbollah fighters but also other combatants and civilians, one a Reuters journalist.
On the Israeli side, nine people have died — eight soldiers and one civilian, the army says.
Some analysts think that Hezbollah has little interest in becoming fully embroiled in a battle that Israeli officials have threatened could destroy Lebanon.
Others say the decision lies with Iran, which leads the regional “axis of resistance” against Israel, which alongside Hezbollah includes armed groups from Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, some of which have attacked Israel and US interests in the region in recent weeks.
But Amal Saad, a Hezbollah expert at Cardiff University, said: “Hezbollah is not a proxy of Iran, it’s an ally of Iran… Hezbollah doesn’t need anyone’s permission to intervene.”
Saad added, “Hezbollah has much more experience fighting Israel than Iran does — Iran has not had a confrontation with Israel.”
On Wednesday, Hezbollah published a letter from its fighters addressed to Palestinian groups in Gaza, saying they had their “finger with you on the trigger… to support Al-Aqsa mosque and our oppressed brothers in Palestine”.
The group has particularly restricted itself to targeting Israeli observation posts, military positions, and vehicles near the border as well as drones, using what it says have been anti-tank missiles, guided missiles, and even surface-to-air missiles.
Israel has responded by bombing sites along the border, while drones have targeted fighters near the frontier.
The border tensions have revived memories of Hezbollah’s devastating 2006 war with Israel that killed more than 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 in Israel, largely soldiers.
Hezbollah receives financial support as well as weapons and equipment from Iran and has built up its powerful arsenal since 2006.
For years, Nasrallah has boasted that his group’s weapons could reach deep into Israeli territory.
“Each side is carefully measuring its actions and reactions to avoid a situation that may spin out of control and spread to the region,” said Michael Young from the Carnegie Middle East Center.
But if Hezbollah fully entered the war, “Lebanon’s devastation would turn most communities, perhaps even large segments of the Shia community”, against it, he warned last week.
In Lebanon, those both for and against expanding the war are holding their breath for Nasrallah’s speech.
Ahed Madi, 43, from the border town of Shebaa said, “We are waiting impatiently… We hope he will announce war on the Israeli enemy and the Western countries that support it.”
Rabih Awad, 41, from the southern town of Rashaya al-Fokhar, said a new war between Hezbollah and Israel “would be a death blow for Lebanon”, which is grappling with a crushing economic crisis.
“I am against the war of extermination on the Palestinians in Gaza,” he told AFP.
“But the decision to go to war must be taken by the Lebanese state, not a party or a militia.”
